Explanation:
only Hadley. and even that is not fully correct.
the expected value here gives us the overall most likely outcome of the scenario when throwing 2 balls.
and not ball by ball. and not directly a probability.
like rolling a die : the expected value of rolling a 6 in 6 attempts is 1 due to the individual roll probability of 1/6.
but the probabilty is NOT 1 or 100% (a guaranteed 6 in 6 attempts).
and that brings me to my concern with Hadley's statement. it says with conviction "the player will make ...". no, only "... will likely make ..." or "... on average".