Researchers estimate that 21.5% of men and 17% of women smoke cigarettes.1
The rate of new cases in 2008 showed that men develop lung cancer more often than women (70.2 and 50.5 cases per 100,000 persons, respectively).2
Smoking, a main cause of small cell and non-small cell lung cancer, correlates to 90% and 80% of lung cancer deaths in men and women, respectively.3 That is, 90% of men who are diagnosed with lung cancer are active smokers, and 80% of women who are diagnosed with lung cancer are active smokers.
1. What answer do you predict? Why? (2 points)
2. Given what you know about probability, how can you determine if smoking and lung cancer are related? (2 points)
Analyze the Data:
3. What is the probability that a randomly chosen man is a smoker? (1 point)
4. What is the probability that a randomly chosen man will be diagnosed with lung cancer? (1 point)
5. Given that a man has lung cancer, what is the probability that he is a smoker? Write this event with the correct conditional notation. (2 points)
6. What is the probability that a randomly selected man will be a smoker and be diagnosed with lung cancer? (2 points)
7. For a randomly selected man, are the events diagnosed with lung cancer and smoker independent events? Support your answer with probabilities. (2 points)
Consider the Case for Women:
8. For a randomly selected woman, are the events diagnosed with lung cancer and smoker independent or conditional? Support your answer with probabilities. (4 points)
Making a Decision:
9. What can you conclude about smoking and lung cancer? Are they conditional or independent events? (2 point)
10. Some people who have never smoked develop lung cancer. Does this disprove the evidence? (1 point)