Answer:
0.9624 = 96.24% probability that the sample proportion will differ from the population proportion by less than 3%
Explanation:
To solve this question, we need to understand the normal probability distribution and the central limit theorem.
Normal Probability Distribution
Problems of normal distributions can be solved using the z-score formula.
In a set with mean
and standard deviation
, the z-score of a measure X is given by:
The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the measure is from the mean. After finding the Z-score, we look at the z-score table and find the p-value associated with this z-score. This p-value is the probability that the value of the measure is smaller than X, that is, the percentile of X. Subtracting 1 by the p-value, we get the probability that the value of the measure is greater than X.
Central Limit Theorem
The Central Limit Theorem establishes that, for a normally distributed random variable X, with mean
and standard deviation
, the sampling distribution of the sample means with size n can be approximated to a normal distribution with mean
and standard deviation
.
For a skewed variable, the Central Limit Theorem can also be applied, as long as n is at least 30.
For a proportion p in a sample of size n, the sampling distribution of the sample proportion will be approximately normal with mean
and standard deviation
Suppose a large shipment of televisions contained 9% defectives
This means that
Sample of size 393
This means that
Mean and standard deviation:
What is the probability that the sample proportion will differ from the population proportion by less than 3%?
Proportion between 0.09 - 0.03 = 0.06 and 0.09 + 0.03 = 0.12, which is the p-value of Z when X = 0.12 subtracted by the p-value of Z when X = 0.06.
X = 0.12
By the Central Limit Theorem
has a p-value of 0.9812
X = 0.06
has a p-value of 0.0188
0.9812 - 0.0188 = 0.9624
0.9624 = 96.24% probability that the sample proportion will differ from the population proportion by less than 3%