The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.6 in 2017 suggests that China was experiencing below-replacement-level fertility at that time. In the long term, if this low TFR persists, several demographic trends are likely:
Population Decline: A TFR of 1.6 indicates that, on average, each woman is having fewer than two children. This means that over generations, the population will naturally decrease.
Aging Population: As fertility remains low and life expectancy continues to rise, China's population will age significantly. This can result in a higher dependency ratio, with more elderly people relative to the working-age population.
Economic Implications: An aging population can strain social welfare systems and healthcare resources. It may also impact economic growth due to a smaller workforce.
Policy Adjustments: The Chinese government may introduce policies to encourage higher fertility rates, such as relaxing the one-child policy or offering incentives for families to have more children. These policies could influence the long-term population trajectory.
Migration: China may increasingly rely on immigration to offset population decline and support its labor force. However, this depends on government policies and societal attitudes towards immigration.
It's important to note that demographic trends can evolve over time, and other factors, such as government policies and social changes, can influence population dynamics. Thus, while a TFR of 1.6 suggests a declining population in the long term, actual outcomes will depend on various complex factors.