Question

For your individual submission, you will return to the historical event of the disaster of Challenger disaster in 1986, as it unfolded and consider the risks and rewards to the various stakeholders for the various possible launch decisions, as well as give your own personal recommendation or whether to launch or not.

Consider 3 possible scenarios for the day of the launch of the Challenger Shuttle:

a) The shuttle launch is aborted ("no launch")

b) The shuttle is launched successfully

c) The shuttle is launched, but explodes as in real life ("unsuccessful launch")

Discuss the potential risks and rewards of these 3 possible scenarios no launch, successful launch, and unsuccessful launch and then give your personal recommendation on whether to launch or not, and rationale for your decision. Assume you are head of the engineering team at Morton Thiokol giving your recommendation to your company's senior managers. For this individual part of the assignment, assume you are making the decision at the time of the accident when the ambient temperature was 31°F, and although you are aware of the effect of temperature on the O-ring elasticity, you don’t have the detailed data referred to above regarding the probability of O-ring failure as a function of temperature.

You should consider the impact of each of these 3 scenarios on the various stakeholders in these situations, including the following:

a) The company Morton Thiokol who built the boosters

b) Morton Thiokol engineers

c) Morton Thiokol managers

d) NASA

e) The shuttle astronauts

f) The public

Answer 1

a) The potential risks of a no launch scenario would be financial losses for Morton Thiokol and NASA. The rewards would be that the safety of the astronauts would be ensured and the risk of a catastrophic failure would be avoided. The stakeholders that would be affected by this decision would be Morton Thiokol and NASA managers, engineers, and the public.

b) The potential risks of a successful launch scenario would be that the O-rings could still fail and cause a catastrophic failure, leading to loss of life and financial losses for Morton Thiokol and NASA. The rewards would be that the mission would be successful, and the shuttle and its crew would reach space. The stakeholders that would be affected by this decision would be Morton Thiokol and NASA managers, engineers, astronauts, and the public.

c) The potential risks of an unsuccessful launch scenario would be loss of life, financial losses for Morton Thiokol and NASA, and damage to the reputation of both organizations. The rewards would be that the cause of the failure would be identified, and steps could be taken to prevent it from happening again. The stakeholders that would be affected by this decision would be Morton Thiokol and NASA managers, engineers, astronauts, and the public.

Based on the potential risks and rewards of each scenario, I would recommend a no launch scenario. The safety of the astronauts should always be the top priority, and the risk of a catastrophic failure is too high to justify launching the shuttle. I would recommend that Morton Thiokol and NASA work together to investigate the cause of the O-ring failures and take steps to prevent it from happening in the future. This decision would affect Morton Thiokol and NASA managers, engineers, astronauts, and the public.