Question

Since the Covid-19 outbreak, the use of sports facilities and venues has dropped significantly. You have a group of friends who are frequent visitors to a swimming pool and they are interested in understanding the impact of COVID -19 on the income of the swimming pool operator. Knowing that you have learned the knowledge related to making forecasts, your friends ask for your opinion on the following questions.

Please use relevant data in the Excel workbook Q2_input_file.xlsx in Canvas (next to this question paper) to answer the following questions.
(a) Comment on the underlying pattern in the swimming pool attendances over 2016 1Q- 2019 4Q. Please limit the answer to within one page
(b) Use a suitable method to forecast the swimming pool attendances for every quarter between 2020 1Q and 2021 2Q. assuming that actual data in that range is not yet available. After that, combined with the actual data, estimate the income loss of the swimming pool for each quarter in that range, assuming that each attendance brings in income of $5 for the swimming pool. Please limit the answer to within two pages.

Answer 1

However, I can provide you with some general guidance on how to approach these questions.

(a) To comment on the underlying pattern in the swimming pool attendances over the period from 2016 1Q to 2019 4Q, you can analyze the data provided in the Excel workbook. Look for any trends, seasonality, or patterns in the attendance numbers during that period. You can calculate measures such as quarterly averages, year-over-year growth rates, or seasonal indices to understand the fluctuations in attendance. Consider creating visualizations like line charts or bar graphs to illustrate the patterns effectively. Look for any notable increases or decreases, recurring seasonal patterns, or any specific events that may have influenced attendance levels.

(b) To forecast the swimming pool attendances for each quarter between 2020 1Q and 2021 2Q, you can use various forecasting methods depending on the characteristics of the data and any observed patterns. Common approaches include time series analysis, such as exponential smoothing methods (e.g., Simple Exponential Smoothing, Holt's Linear Exponential Smoothing) or more advanced techniques like ARIMA or seasonal forecasting models.

If you have access to the data in the Excel workbook, you can import it into a statistical software or use Excel's built-in forecasting tools. Apply the selected forecasting method to generate the attendance forecasts for the specified quarters.

To estimate the income loss of the swimming pool for each quarter in the forecasted range, you can multiply the forecasted attendance for each quarter by the income generated per attendance ($5). Compare these estimates with the actual data, if available, for the corresponding quarters to calculate the income loss.

Keep in mind that the accuracy of the forecasts depends on the quality and quantity of historical data, the presence of any unusual events or disruptions (like COVID-19), and the suitability of the chosen forecasting method. Adjustments or additional considerations may be needed based on specific factors impacting swimming pool attendance, such as government regulations, local COVID-19 restrictions, or changes in consumer behavior.

Note: For a detailed analysis and calculations, it is advisable to use the actual data and specific methods outlined in the provided Excel workbook.