Question

All answers were generated using 1,000 trials and native Excel functionality.)

At a local university, the Student Commission on Programming and Entertainment (SCOPE) is preparing to host its first music concert of the school year. To successfully produce this music concert, SCOPE has to complete several activities. The following table lists information regarding each activity. An activity’s immediate predecessors are the activities that must be completed before the considered activity can begin. The table also lists duration estimates (in days) for each activity.

Activity Immediate

Predecessors Minimum

Time Likely

Time Maximum

Time

A: Negotiate contract with selected musicians — 5 6 9

B: Reserve site — 8 12 15

C: Logistical arrangements for music group A 5 6 7

D: Screen and hire security personnel B 3 3 3

E: Advertising and ticketing B, C 1 5 9

F: Hire parking staff D 4 7 10

G: Arrange concession sales E 3 8 10

The following network illustrates the precedence relationships in the SCOPE project. The project begins with activities A and B, which can start immediately (time 0) because they have no predecessors. On the other hand, activity E cannot be started until activities B and C are both completed. The project is not complete until all activities are completed.

a) Using the triangular distribution to represent the duration of each activity, construct a simulation model to estimate the average amount of time to complete the concert preparations.

Round your answers to one decimal place.

Project Duration

Average days

Standard Deviation days

(b) What is the likelihood that the project will be complete in 23 days or less?

Round your answer to the nearest whole number.

%

Answer 1

The task involves creating a simulation model to estimate the average completion time for a university music concert project using the triangular distribution function in Excel, performing 1,000 trials to obtain the average duration and standard deviation, and determining the likelihood of project completion within 23 days.

Step-by-step explanation:

The question involves the construction of a simulation model using triangular distribution to estimate the average completion time for a set of activities related to hosting a music concert at a university. Each activity has a minimum, likely, and maximum time for completion, and some activities depend on the completion of others. To construct the simulation model in Excel, the triangular distribution function can be used to generate random durations for each activity based on their respective minimum, likely, and maximum times, considering the dependencies between the activities.

Once the simulation model is built with 1,000 trials, the average duration and standard deviation of project completion can be calculated. The likelihood that the project will be completed in 23 days or less can be determined by analyzing the results of the simulation and calculating the percentage of trials where the total completion time was less than or equal to 23 days.