To estimate the number of people who would have died from AIDS in 2003, assuming the exponential growth model with a growth factor of 1.9, we need to calculate the exponential growth from 1983 to 2003.
First, let's calculate the number of years between 1983 and 2003:
2003 - 1983 = 20 years
Using the exponential growth formula:
N = N0 * (growth factor)^t
Where:
N0 is the initial value (number of deaths in 1983)
(growth factor) is the common ratio or growth multiplier
t is the time in years
Given:
N0 = 1600 (number of deaths in 1983)
growth factor = 1.9 (common ratio)
t = 20 (years)
Using the formula, we can calculate:
N = 1600 * (1.9)^20
Calculating this expression:
N ≈ 1600 * 6.1917364224
N ≈ 9907.58
Therefore, if the trend had continued unchecked, approximately 9908 people would have died from AIDS in the U.S. in 2003.