Question

places] b. Use trend-adjusted smoothing with α=2 and β=1 to smooth the new account data in part a. What is the forecast for period 16 ? Compute the initial trend estimate (Tt​) for Period 5 as follows: (Period 4 data - Period 1 data) /3. Then compute the initial trendadjusted forecast (TAF) for Period 5 as follows: Period 4 data + initial trend estimate for Period 5 . Then compute all remaining values (inciuding the St​ value for Period 5) using the textbook formulas or Excel template. (Round the "Trend"values (Tt) to 3 decimal places and all other intermediate forecast values (TAFt and St) to 2 decimal places. Round your final answer to 2 decimal places.)

Answer 1

To forecast for period 16 using trend-adjusted smoothing, begin with calculating initial trend estimate and use the smoothing constants to calculate subsequent periods' smoothed values and trends, culminating in the period 16 forecast after rounding.

Step-by-step explanation:

The question involves the use of trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, which is a forecasting technique used in time series analysis. To calculate the forecast for period 16 using this method, you would need to first have the new account data for periods 1 to 15. You begin by calculating an initial trend estimate (Tt) using the given formula (Period 4 data - Period 1 data) / 3.

Then you would compute the initial trend-adjusted forecast (TAF) for Period 5 as Period 4 data + initial trend estimate for Period 5. With the given smoothing constants (α=2 and β=1), you continue to compute the smoothed value (St) and the trend (Tt) for all subsequent periods using the formulas provided in the textbook or an Excel template. The final forecast for period 16 would be the result of these calculations, rounded to two decimal places as instructed.