Question

This chapter contains two views of the future. Since the validity of theseviews cannot be completely tested until the time period covered by theforecast has passed (so that predictions can be matched against actualevents), how can we ever hope to establish in advance whether one is a betterview than the other? What criteria might be proposed for evaluatingpredictions?

Answer 1

When the time period covered by the forecast hasn't yet passed, it can be difficult to determine which view of the future is superior to another. But there are some standards that can be suggested for rating predictions and figuring out their dependability. Here are some standard standards for assessing predictions:

Prediction accuracy is one of the main factors to consider. How closely do the anticipated events match up with what actually happens? A prediction's reliability tends to increase with its accuracy. The degree to which a prediction accords with known facts, theories, or past patterns is referred to as consistency. A prediction gains credibility if it is consistent with known facts and theories.