Question

Which of these contexts describes a situation that is likely?

Rolling a number greater than 6 on a standard six-sided die, numbered from 1 to 6.
Spinning a spinner divided into four equal-sized sections colored red/green/yellow/blue and landing on red.
Winning a raffle that sold a total of 100 tickets if you bought 99 tickets.
Reaching into a bag full of 17 strawberry chews and 3 cherry chews without looking and pulling out a cherry chew.

Answer 1

most likely: Winning a raffle that sold a total of 100 tickets if you bought 99 tickets:

99% chance of winning

also likely: Reaching into a bag full of 17 strawberry chews and 3 cherry chews without looking and pulling out a cherry chew.

85% of them are strawberry

you don't even need to know the %, most of them are strawberry by a lot

Explanation:

Rolling a number greater than 6 on a standard six-sided die, numbered from 1 to 6:

impossible, there are no numbers greater than 6

Spinning a spinner divided into four equal-sized sections colored red/green/yellow/blue and landing on red:

only a 25% chance