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A 2018 poll of 3612 randomly selected users of a social media site found that 1704 get most of their news about world events on the site. Research done in 2013 found that only 46% of all the site users reported getting their news about world events on this site.

a. Does this sample give evidence that the proportion of site users who get their world news on this site has changed since 2013? Carry out a hypothesis test and use a 0.05 significance level.
b. After conducting the hypothesis test, a further question one might ask is what proportion of all of the site users get most of their news about world events on the site in 2018. Use the sample data to construct a 95% confidence interval for the population proportion. How does your confidence interval support your hypothesis test conclusion?

User Katara
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a. To test whether the proportion of site users who get their world news on this site has changed since 2013, we can use a hypothesis test with the following hypotheses:

Null hypothesis: The proportion of site users who get their world news on this site is equal to 0.46.
Alternative hypothesis: The proportion of site users who get their world news on this site is greater than 0.46.

We will use a significance level of 0.05.

The sample proportion is 1704/3612 = 0.471. We can assume that the sample is large enough to use a normal distribution. The test statistic is:

z = (0.471 - 0.46) / sqrt(0.46 * 0.54 / 3612) = 3.87

The p-value for this test is P(Z > 3.87) = 0.00005, which is much smaller than the significance level of 0.05. Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the proportion of site users who get their world news on this site has increased since 2013.

b. To construct a 95% confidence interval for the population proportion, we can use the sample proportion and the margin of error formula:

Margin of error = z* * sqrt(p*(1-p)/n)

where z* is the critical value for a 95% confidence level, p is the sample proportion, and n is the sample size.

The critical value for a 95% confidence level is 1.96. Substituting the values, we get:

Margin of error = 1.96 * sqrt(0.471 * 0.529 / 3612) = 0.018

The 95% confidence interval is therefore:

0.471 ± 0.018

or

(0.453, 0.489)

This interval does not include the null hypothesis value of 0.46, which supports our conclusion from the hypothesis test that the proportion of site users who get their world news on this site has increased since 2013.
User Kmatyaszek
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a. To test whether the proportion of site users who get their world news on this site has changed since 2013, we can perform a hypothesis test. Let p be the true population proportion of site users who get their world news on this site in 2018. Then the null hypothesis is H0: p = 0.46, and the alternative hypothesis is Ha: p ≠ 0.46. We will use a two-tailed z-test with a 0.05 significance level.

Using the sample data, the sample proportion of site users who get their world news on this site is 1704/3612 = 0.471. The standard error of the sample proportion is sqrt(0.46*0.54/3612) = 0.013. The z-score for the sample proportion is (0.471 - 0.46) / 0.013 = 0.846. The corresponding p-value for this test is P(|Z| > 0.846) = 0.397 > 0.05.

Since the p-value is greater than 0.05, we fail to reject the null hypothesis and conclude that there is not enough evidence to suggest that the proportion of site users who get their world news on this site has changed since 2013.

b. To construct a 95% confidence interval for the population proportion of site users who get their world news on this site in 2018, we can use the sample proportion and the margin of error formula:

Margin of error = z*sqrt(p*(1-p)/n)

where z = 1.96 for a 95% confidence level, p = 0.471, and n = 3612.

Plugging in these values, we get:

Margin of error = 1.96*sqrt(0.471*(1-0.471)/3612) = 0.014

Therefore, the 95% confidence interval for the population proportion is:

0.471 ± 0.014, or (0.457, 0.485)

Since the null hypothesis in part (a) was that the proportion of site users who get their world news on this site is 0.46, and the confidence interval does not contain 0.46, this supports the conclusion of the hypothesis test that there is not enough evidence to suggest that the proportion has changed since 2013.

(If this doesn’t seem right to you make sure you comment!)
User Pinkfloydhomer
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