Final answer:
Identifying a threat's likely objectives and desired endstate is about determining the goals and intended outcomes that an entity aims to achieve. It assesses the threat's capabilities, influence, and strategies by considering the who, what, where, when, and why. The process involves strategic reasoning, gauging of risks and rewards, and potential courses of action.
Step-by-step explanation:
When identifying a threat's likely objectives and desired endstate, one is essentially determining the goals and intended outcomes that an adversarial entity aims to achieve through its actions or policies. This assessment includes an understanding of the strategic reasoning and potential courses of action available to the state or actor, considering the various capabilities and methods that can be employed to realize those objectives. Such an appraisal is crucial for states or organizations in responding effectively and safeguarding their interests against potential threats.
State decision-making processes involve weighing the risks and rewards of various actions, seeking the maximum net benefit for their purposes. Intelligence plays a critical role in this, as states rely on information to guide their strategic decisions. A misjudgment based on inaccurate intelligence could result in unintended consequences and failure to achieve the desired endstate.
Assessing a threat fully involves discerning not just the capabilities of a potential adversary, but also gauging their influence and the effectiveness of their strategies. This involves analyzing the environment, identifying all relevant actors, and evaluating the current efforts to address the issue, whether it necessitates building upon existing strategies or devising new paths. It is about understanding the 'what', 'who', 'where', 'when', and 'why' of a threat's objectives.
The implications of such assessments are far-reaching, affecting national security, protection of citizens, international relations, and even the shaping of economic sanctions. Each of these outcomes can be seen as a possible 'endstate' that a threat may aim toward. Hence, it is paramount to continuously ask not just 'What am I doing?' but also 'What is the target doing?' or 'What is the target making me do?', keeping the focus on the adversary's actions and intentions.