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President Obama’s jobs speech on Thursday evening will take place in front of a joint session of Congress, underlining the coming legislative clash over how best to jump-start the nation’s flagging economy.
But the president will have many different audiences when he takes the podium in the House chamber at 7 p.m. (earlier than usual to avoid the start of the N.F.L. season).
The immediate success of the speech may be judged by how lawmakers in the chamber respond, though in Washington’s hyperpartisan atmosphere the reaction is almost certainly going to be negative from the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.
The challenge for the president — any president — in such speeches is to find a way to communicate a series of different messages to the many groups who will be watching.
Everyone will hear the same words. But within the speech, particular words will be signals to different constituencies.
And the tone of the speech will matter, too. Will the Obama who gives the speech tonight be the professorial one, methodically explaining the situation to the public? Or will he be the more aggressive, campaign-mode Obama whose rhythm and pace is quicker and more urgent? Or maybe a mix of the two?
Here’s a breakdown of the different groups that Mr. Obama will be talking to on Thursday night:
House Republicans. First and foremost, Mr. Obama will be putting House Republicans on notice that he intends to press them to pass his jobs package — and to use their refusal as a campaign issue if they do not take it up. Speaker John A. Boehner and his top lieutenants have for months demanded that Mr. Obama put his jobs plan on the table. Now, they will have to decide how to deal with it.
Reaction to the details of the president’s proposals that have already leaked out suggests that Mr. Boehner’s party intends to dismiss most of them. But again, the tone could matter. If Mr. Obama is combative, the legislative battle could be short and decisive. If the president extends a series of olive branches, there could be more of an effort to negotiate.
Independents. The White House has made clear that one of its chief goals with the speech is crafting an argument that independent voters will find reassuring.
The president’s victory in the 2008 election leaned heavily on convincing those middle-of-the-road voters that he was the best candidate to handle the economy. Since taking office, his popularity among that group has plunged.
To win them back before the 2012 election, Mr. Obama is hoping to make the case that he is the reasonable one in Washington, the one person willing to compromise and negotiate in good faith to get something done.
“The professional left.” For weeks now, there has been a steady drumbeat of expectations from liberal pundits and columnists who were once derided by Robert Gibbs, the president’s former press secretary, as “the professional left.”
It seems unlikely from the information we have so far that the president’s proposals will completely satisfy the most liberal of his supporters. But the size of the jobs plan — which could approach $400 billion — may help to quiet some of the president’s critics.
And his tone will matter with this audience, too — though in the opposite way. The more he chooses conciliatory language in talking to House Republicans, the less the professional left will be happy. If he chooses fiery rhetoric that will whip up his base, he could anger those Republicans in the House.
Look for a bit of both in the speech to satisfy both audiences.
The markets. Senior White House advisers have long said that they do not measure the president’s success by the daily ups and downs of the stock market.
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