182,791 views
17 votes
17 votes
A bag contains 3 gold marbles, 7 silver marbles, and

28 black marbles. Someone offers to play this game:
You randomly select one marble from the bag. If it
is gold, you win $3. If it is silver, you win $2. If it is
black, you lose $1.
What is your expected value if you play this game?

User Dbrasco
by
3.0k points

1 Answer

15 votes
15 votes

To calculate the expected value of playing this game, we need to multiply the value of each possible outcome by its probability of occurring and then add these values together. In this case, there are 3 gold marbles, 7 silver marbles, and 28 black marbles in the bag, for a total of 38 marbles. So, the probability of selecting a gold marble is 3/38, the probability of selecting a silver marble is 7/38, and the probability of selecting a black marble is 28/38. The value of winning $3 if a gold marble is selected is $3 * (3/38) = $0.21. The value of winning $2 if a silver marble is selected is $2 * (7/38) = $0.37. And the value of losing $1 if a black marble is selected is -$1 * (28/38) = -$0.74. Adding these values together, we get $0.21 + $0.37 - $0.74 = -$0.16. Therefore, the expected value of playing this game is approximately -$0.16.

User Nejcs
by
3.3k points
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