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discuss what can go wrong and the caution that need to be exercised when using linear regression models

User David Smit
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Final answer:

When using linear regression, it's essential to ensure a truly linear relationship, watch out for outliers that may skew the model, avoid extrapolation, assess the model fit using residuals, and confirm linearity despite a significant correlation coefficient.

Step-by-step explanation:

When using linear regression models, various issues can arise that necessitate caution. First, the assumption of a linear relationship between the variables X and Y: if the variables have a strong negative linear relationship, they can be good candidates for a linear regression analysis. However, the relationship must be truly linear; if not, the predictions made by the model will be inaccurate. Also, care must be taken to ensure the model does not violate any of the key assumptions of linear regression, such as homoscedasticity, independence of errors, and normality of residuals.

Outliers can also distort the results of a regression analysis. They can disproportionately influence the slope of the regression line and the correlation coefficient (r). Outliers can be identified by examining scatter plots or by checking if points lie more than two standard deviations from the best-fit line. Once identified, further analysis is needed to decide whether to include or exclude them, considering the effect of their removal on the model's fit.

Extrapolation is another concern; one should avoid using a regression model to make predictions for values outside the domain of observed X values. The regression equation and the residual analysis are key components of linear regression. The slope tells us about the rate of change of Y with respect to X, while the y-intercept gives the value of Y when X is zero. The size of the residuals can identify the point with the largest deviation from the line of best fit, and this contributes to evaluating the overall fit of the model.

Lastly, even when the computed correlation coefficient is significant, it is essential to carefully examine the scatter plot to confirm that the relationship is indeed linear and that using the line for prediction is justified.

User Nohup
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