Question

Which option were people most likely to take?

a) If program A is adopted, 200 out of 600 people will be saved
b) If program B is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that 600 people will be saved but a 2/3 probability that no one will be saved
c) If program A is adopted, 400 out of 600 people will die
d) If program B is adopted, there is a 1/3 chance that nobody will die, but a 2/3 chance that 600 people will die

Answer 1

In scenarios involving decision-making with probabilistic outcomes, individuals tend to choose options that offer certainty. In the given scenario, option (a), which guarantees that 200 people will be saved is often preferred due to the certainty of the outcome.

Step-by-step explanation:

The student's question involves choosing an option based on expected outcomes, which falls under the category of probability and decision-making in mathematics.

In both scenarios (program A vs. program B), the outcomes are probabilistically equivalent but framed differently: option a) directly states that 200 people will be saved whereas option b) presents a probabilistic scenario in which there is a 1/3 chance for 600 people to be saved.

Similarly, option c) and d) refer to the number of people who will die, with option c) stating 400 deaths and option d) giving probabilities for deaths. People are generally risk-averse and prefer certainty over uncertainty, so they tend to choose deterministic outcomes over probabilistic ones.

Therefore, option a), which guarantees that 200 people will be saved, is often preferred over option b), which only offers a 1/3 chance of saving 600 people. Likewise, option c) may be chosen over option d) because the loss is perceived as certain rather than probable.