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Bad simulations Explain why each of the following simulations fails to model the real situation properly:

a) Use a random integer from 0 through 9 to represent the number of heads when 9 coins are tossed.

b) A basketball player takes a foul shot. Look at a random digit, using an odd digit to represent a good shot and an even digit to represent a miss.

c) Use random integers from 1 through 13 to represent the denominations of the cards in a five-card poker hand.

User Janrito
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Final answer:

The aforementioned simulations are not accurate because they do not reflect the correct distribution of outcomes: a) does not follow the binomial distribution, b) assumes an incorrect probability for a basketball shot, and c) does not account for the four suits in a poker hand.

Step-by-step explanation:

Simulations are used to model real-life scenarios and the outcomes of experiments when it is impractical to perform them physically. However, it's important to ensure the model correctly represents the experiment it's trying to simulate, including the correct distribution of outcomes.

a) Using a random integer from 0 through 9 to represent the number of heads when 9 coins are tossed fails because the outcomes are not equally likely. The binomial distribution relevant here will have more instances of 4 or 5 heads than 0 or 9, which is not reflected in the uniform distribution from 0 to 9.

b) Representing a basketball player's foul shot outcome with an odd or even random digit does not accurately model because it assumes a 50/50 chance of success or failure, which may not reflect the player's actual foul shot percentage.

c) Using random integers from 1 through 13 to represent the denominations of the cards in a five-card poker hand does not account for the fact that a deck has four suits, affecting the probabilities of certain hand combinations.

The law of large numbers and theoretical probability must be considered when creating simulations to ensure that, over many trials, the frequency of outcomes approximates the expected probabilities.

User Augustin
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