Final answer:
Basing terminal multiples on public company comparables can produce misleading valuations as it often overlooks company-specific financial metrics, growth projections, and capital structure differences, thereby affecting the accuracy of a company's future value estimation.
Step-by-step explanation:
The flaw with basing terminal multiples on what public company comparables are trading at primarily lies in the disregard of company-specific financial metrics and the differences between companies in terms of growth trajectories and capital structure. While using public company comparables can offer a benchmark, it often fails to account for the unique attributes and prospects of the company being valued. For instance, if a company experiences market volatility or operates in an industry with specific trends not reflected across the comparables, the terminal value derived could be inaccurate.
Moreover, such an approach can lead to flawed valuations because it may not consider factors such as management quality, competitive advantage, or regulatory changes that could significantly impact a company's future cash flow. There is also the issue that an entire industry may be over or under-valued at a given moment, which would distort any comparative multiple analysis. Lastly, this method assumes a level of market efficiency that may not exist, thereby potentially misrepresenting a company’s terminal value.