Final answer:
A reduction in political instability is the most likely factor to increase exports in Bardia, as it creates a favorable business environment and enhances Bardia's credibility in the global market.
Step-by-step explanation:
The factor most likely to increase exports in the country of Bardia would be a reduction in political instability. Political stability is critical for a thriving export economy, because it creates a favorable business environment that can attract foreign investment, facilitate trade agreements, and enhance the credibility and reliability of Bardia's businesses in the global market. Options like introducing a consumption tax or reducing the government's budget surplus might not directly promote exports, and an import quota typically aims to protect domestic industries by limiting imports rather than increasing exports.