Final answer:
The question examines factors like polls and voter turnout that impact election outcomes, as seen in the 2012 presidential election where Mitt Romney's internal polls inaccurately predicted a win, leading to a prepared transition website and no concession speech. The role of mail-in voting systems in increasing voter turnout and the influence of 'October surprises' on the voter's decision-making process are also discussed.
Step-by-step explanation:
The Impact of Polls and Voter Turnout on Elections
Understanding historical elections and their outcomes often involves an analysis of polls and voter turnout. In the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney's team created a transition website based on their polls, which incorrectly predicted a win for Romney. This overconfidence was a result of their internal polls overestimating the motivation and turnout of Republican voters, contrasting with non-campaign polls that showed President Barack Obama ahead.
Another aspect to consider in elections is the introduction of mail-in voting systems, which have been adopted by states such as Colorado and have led to increased voter turnout. Early and mail-only voting come with their own sets of benefits and drawbacks, including the inability to react to late-breaking news or 'October surprises' that might influence an undecided voter.
The importance of accurate polling and understanding voter behavior is crucial for predicting election outcomes. Campaigns that rely on skewed data or fail to consider all variables may find themselves unprepared on election night, as was the case with Romney's concession speech. Historical examples further emphasize the significant role that voter engagement and expectation management play in the electoral process.