Final answer:
To develop optimal estimates, project managers should use mathematical models, understand the problem in-depth, employ simple yet intuitive methods like the R/P ratio, keep evaluations simple, and use estimating skills developed through quantitative thinking. Estimation techniques help assess time and costs accurately, making it easier to manage unexpected outcomes.
Step-by-step explanation:
Optimal Estimation Techniques for Project Management
For a project manager to develop optimal estimates for a project's time and costs, a multifaceted approach should be adopted, incorporating various estimation strategies. The process begins with an in-depth analysis of the problem to understand the given information. Drawing on mathematical models can help to roughly estimate costs during the design process and enable the project manager to evaluate alternative solutions. Familiarizing oneself with dimensions and units is crucial as many estimates rely on formulas with inputs of limited precision.
Next, the R/P ratio — reserves to production — serves as a simple yet intuitive method to evaluate timescales for resource availability. This approach can be illustrated by creating a timeline. By comparing existing resources against the rate of use, one can determine a timescale.
Keeping the evaluation process simple and actionable is paramount. By ensuring the evaluation is doable and comprehensible to all stakeholders, it refines its usefulness. If estimations are made with familiarity to relevant scales and quantities, unexpected outcomes can be anticipated and managed effectively.
Lastly, using estimating skills, which are derived from an understanding of physics and applicable to various fields, allows for making informed approximations. These skills are honed over time through quantitative thinking and practice and are essential for conducting 'sanity checks' on calculations or proposals.
Conclusion
It is important to review whether the results support your estimated times and to discuss any discrepancies. Unexpected events that occur during project stages contribute to the final calculated time and must be taken into consideration when reflecting on the estimation's accuracy.