Final answer:
Predicting the death rate from a smallpox outbreak without vaccinations is complex, historically at 50% or more, but likely lower today due to better healthcare and emergency responses. Stockpiling smallpox for research may be justified to prepare for potential emergencies. A modern outbreak could cause massive disruption and change daily life considerably.
Step-by-step explanation:
If smallpox were to break out in Ann Arbor and no vaccination were available, it is difficult to predict the exact fraction of the population that would die without more context. Historically, epidemics of smallpox had fatality rates of 50% or greater in susceptible populations. However, today's healthcare infrastructure, knowledge about infection control, and potential for emergency response would likely reduce that number significantly. The impact of such a disease today would depend on multiple factors, including the speed of the spread, effectiveness of quarantines, and availability of supportive care. Stockpiling the virus for research purposes may be a legitimate argument to maintain some form of the virus, to develop new vaccines or treatments if needed.
Considering historical precedents, when smallpox was foisted upon the Native American population by Europeans in the 16th century, it had catastrophic consequences because the indigenous people had no prior exposure or immunity to the disease. A modern outbreak could trigger widespread panic, overwhelm healthcare systems, and lead to significant social and economic disruption. It could affect daily life significantly, with the imposition of quarantines, travel restrictions, and a careful re-evaluation of public health strategies.