Final answer:
Researchers use various statistical methods to study divorce rates, but the most accurate predictions often come from cohort studies that track marriages over a set time period. None of the options provided specifically reflect a predictive calculation for new marriages.
Step-by-step explanation:
Understanding Divorce Rate Statistics
Researchers often use several statistical calculations to predict the number of new marriages that will end in divorce, but the option that specifically focuses on predicting this number is not listed among the provided choices. Crude divorce rates and refined divorce rates can give historians an indication of divorce trends, but these figures compare unrelated statistics, such as the number of marriages in a given year with the divorces occurring in that same year, which can be misleading.
For more accurate predictions, a cohort study would follow the marriages over time to see the percentage that remains intact after a set number of years versus the percentage that ends in divorce. However, none of these options directly reflect a predictive calculation for new marriages. Sociological researchers must be aware of the methods they utilize as different methodological approaches can lead to very different interpretations of divorce rates.