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What technique do managers use to project volumes under conditions of uncertainty?

A. Historical analysis
B. Trend analysis
C. Regression analysis
D. Scenario analysis

User JBE
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1 Answer

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Final answer:

Managers use Scenario Analysis to project volumes under conditions of uncertainty, considering various possible futures and the interactions between multiple changing factors.

Step-by-step explanation:

Managers often face uncertainty when planning and making decisions for the future of their organizations. To project volumes under conditions of uncertainty, managers use Scenario Analysis (D). This technique involves creating various detailed scenarios that represent a range of possible futures. Scenario analysis helps in understanding the impacts of different strategies under varying conditions by using current knowledge to forecast the likely consequences if ongoing landscape change occurs. This approach is valuable because it provides a structured way for geographers and other professionals to contemplate alternative future possibilities, taking into account the complex interactions between numerous factors that are constantly changing within a market or environment.

For example, when analyzing a market, economists use scenario analysis to consider multiple factors that may affect the market simultaneously. This could include changes in regulation, technology advancements, shifts in consumer behavior, or even global economic events. Rather than relying on a single predictive model, scenario analysis allows for a broad examination of potential outcomes, which can enhance strategic planning and risk management.

Similarly, predictive methods like regression analysis are also used to gauge trends. However, for projecting volumes with uncertainty, scenario analysis is uniquely suited to accommodate the complexity of real-world situations, where many variables and their interactions must be considered simultaneously.

User Drathier
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