Final answer:
The national magazine's error mentioned likely occurred in the Data collection phase due to potential non-response bias or coverage error. These problems are examples of sampling error which compromise the reliability of the survey. Scientific polling demands random and representative sampling and careful question design to ensure validity.
Step-by-step explanation:
Regarding the example of the telephone survey conducted shortly before a presidential election, errors in surveys can be attributed to different phases of inferential statistics. Given the context of the survey method (telephone), this is likely an error in the Data collection phase. This may be due to non-response bias or coverage error, where not all individuals in the intended population have an equal chance of participating (some not having a phone, or not being available at the time of the call).
Historical examples like the 1936 presidential election polls highlight these issues, where samples chosen from lists such as magazine subscriptions were not representative of the general population. This often leads to a sampling error since not everyone had access to magazines, cars, or club memberships at the time, and hence, the sample did not accurately reflect the population's diversity.
The reliability of a sample is significantly affected by its response rate; a low response rate can lead to biased results not representative of the entire population. Polling methods like quota sampling, although they attempt to cover various segments of the population, can still introduce bias if not all segments are appropriately represented.
To ensure representative and scientifically valid results, a poll must have a random and representative sample of the desired population. Additionally, attention to detail in question design is crucial; therefore, a leading question, as mentioned in the polling design criteria, is not part of a scientific poll design. These fundamental elements help in minimizing sampling errors and other biases, thereby making the poll results reliable and valid interpretations of public opinions.