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The probability that an 80-year-old male in the U.S. will die within one year is approximately 0.069941. If an insurance company sells a one-year, $12,000 life insurance policy to such a person for $465, what is the company's expectation?

a) -$776.10
b) -$504.19
c) $504.19
d) $776.10

User Sigabrt
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1 Answer

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Final answer:

The insurance company's expected value for selling a $12,000 life insurance policy for $465 to an 80-year-old male is a loss of $406.49 per policy.

Step-by-step explanation:

The question involves calculating the expected value for an insurance company when selling a life insurance policy to an 80-year-old male. The probability of death within a year for such a person is given as 0.069941. If the insurance policy is worth $12,000 and is sold for $465, we can calculate the expected value for the insurance company.



The expectation is calculated using the formula:



  • E[X] = (probability of death) × (payout on death) + (probability of survival) × (net premium),
  • where E[X] is the expectation,
  • payout on death is the life insurance amount,
  • and net premium is the amount the company gains if the person does not die.



Let's go step by step:



  1. Calculate the expected payout on death: 0.069941 × $12,000 = $839.29.
  2. Calculate the expected income from premiums: (1 - 0.069941) × $465 = $432.80.
  3. Subtract the expected payout from the expected income: $432.80 - $839.29 = -$406.49.



This negative value means that on average, the insurance company can expect to lose $406.49 per policy sold to an 80-year-old male for $465.

User Aremyst
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