Final answer:
Considering the historical earthquake patterns and strain accumulation, the western segment of the North Anatolian Fault, closer to Istanbul, is predicted to be the likeliest area for the next major earthquake.
Step-by-step explanation:
Given the active tectonic plate dynamics and the historical earthquake patterns along the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey, the likeliest area to next experience a major earthquake would be the segment of the fault that has not slipped recently, where strain has been accumulating. This segment, located to the west, closer to Istanbul, has been recognized as a significant seismic gap. It is vital for the Turkish government to focus on earthquake preparedness and mitigation strategies in this region.
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Seismologists study the history of earthquakes along a fault to predict future events. By analyzing the pattern of seismic activity and the rate of strain accumulation, they can identify segments where stress is building up, which may indicate an impending earthquake. The US Geological Survey and other global seismological institutes provide maps and data on recent seismic activities and tectonic plate movements to assist in these predictions.
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Recent studies suggest a progression of major earthquakes moving westward along the North Anatolian Fault. Since the eastern segments have already experienced significant earthquakes in the past decades, the potential for a major seismic event is now considered higher in the western segments that have gone longer without significant slippage.