Question

Expert judgement by analogy: a) Guesses can lead to hopeless incorrect cost estimates b) Experts may recollect completed products inaccurately c) Human experts have biases d) The results of estimation by a broad group of experts may be accurate e) All of the above?

1) Guesses can lead to hopeless incorrect cost estimates
2) Experts may recollect completed products inaccurately
3) Human experts have biases
4) The results of estimation by a broad group of experts may be accurate
5) All of the above

Answer 1

Expert judgment by analogy can be problematic due to incorrect guesses, inaccurate recollections, inherent biases, but collaborative effort among a broad group of experts can lead to accurate estimates, making (5) 'All of the above' the correct choice.

Step-by-step explanation:

When we consider expert judgment by analogy, we are referring to the process where experts use their knowledge and experience to make cost estimates or predictions about outcomes. However, this process can be fraught with multiple challenges. One such challenge is that guesses, even by experts, can lead to disastrously incorrect cost estimates if insufficient data or flawed reasoning is involved. Another is the possibility that experts may recollect completed projects inaccurately, leading to biased assumptions and errors in estimation.


Furthermore, human experts have biases such as confirmation bias and anchoring bias that can skew their judgments. However, when a broad group of experts collaborates to make an estimation, the collective wisdom and diverse perspectives can enhance the accuracy of the results. Therefore, the most comprehensive answer to this question encompasses all these aspects, making the option 'All of the above' correct.