If the earth was literally a year old, would that make it more likely that life’s origins were designed?
The reason I ask is simple: given that the earth is claimed to have existed for 4+ billion years, despite the origin of life being considered improbable, it is hypothesized that given the age of the earth, life starting once, even if by luck, isn’t terribly low.
However, on the day there was some sort of special reaction that sparked life, the probability of that reaction occurring would be the same, whether one day, a year, or 4 billion have passed.
As such, the P(life arising by chance on that day|1 year) seems to be the same as P(life arising by chance on that day|4 billion years).
As such, we are only left with comparing P(designer exists who would design life|1 year) and P(designer exists who would design life|4 billion years).
Should these probabilities of design depend upon the probabilities given chance defined earlier?
Should the first be higher? Why or why not? If this cannot be justified, does this mean that the earth being a year old compared to the 4+ billion years of age claimed today, wouldn’t increase the probability of design?