Question

Testing a person claiming psychic abilities, who guesses a number between 1 and 10 ten times, reveals an improbable outcome. The chance is extremely low, 1 in 10 billion. Analyzing this event in isolation suggests it may not be due to chance. However, considering the entire world's history, the likelihood becomes less clear. The question arises: is it more probable that a God granted the psychic powers or that naturalism explains the world's history? This highlights the importance of looking at evidence as a whole rather than in isolation. Randomness in analysis is a model, not a thing-in-itself, and should be approached with caution. Every random variable has a scope, and changing it can distort the analysis. In the case of the psychic's sequential predictions, the unusual outcome suggests a force or effect beyond normal assumptions. Examining all available evidence is crucial for drawing reliable conclusions. The absence of evidence for Tasmanian Devils on an island doesn't provide insight into the existence of a undefined god. Defining what would constitute evidence for a god's existence is a challenging question. What is the probability of correctly guessing a number between 1 and 10 ten times in a row?

a. 1 in 100
b. 1 in 1,000
c. 1 in 10,000
d. 1 in 10 billion

Answer 1

The probability of correctly guessing a number between 1 and 10 ten times in a row is 1 in 10 billion, calculated by multiplying the chance of one correct guess (1 in 10) ten times.

Step-by-step explanation:

When considering the probability of correctly guessing a number between 1 and 10 ten times in a row, we apply basic principles of probability. The event of correctly guessing a number from 1 to 10 has a 1 in 10 chance, or a probability of 0.1. To find the probability of this event happening ten times consecutively, we multiply the probabilities of each individual guess. Therefore, the calculation is 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1, which equates to 1 in 10 billion (0.1^10), or 1 in 10,000,000,000. This extraordinarily low probability suggests that correctly guessing ten times in a row is highly improbable without the influence of some unknown force or effect, besides mere chance.