Question

Suppose I predict that the lottery numbers that will be won tomorrow are a particular sequence and it comes true. Is this event less likely than it occurring without my prediction?

Intuitively, it seems yes, but after thinking about it, I fail to see how the likelihood of those numbers arising by chance would depend in any sort of way on my mind.

Even if I were to predict the lottery numbers three straight times, it seems that those numbers arising by chance have equal likelihood.

Why then does the former seem more impressive? Is it because if they are predicted, it increases the likelihood of cheating or some other process?

Answer 1

The likelihood of winning the lottery with a predicted sequence of numbers is not dependent on the prediction.

Step-by-step explanation:

The likelihood of a particular sequence of lottery numbers being won tomorrow does not depend on your prediction or any individual's prediction.

Each lottery draw is a random event, and the probability of each number being drawn is the same regardless of any predictions.

The perception that the event is more impressive when it is predicted may be due to the belief that predicting the numbers increases the likelihood of cheating or some other process.