Question

Suppose an event occurs in the world that you deem to be dissimilar enough to all other events that have ever happened in the world to consider it unique. Does this imply it is less likely to happen than some other event that is considered similar to other events. Let’s consider A = the class of events that have atleast one other event similar to it. Let’s consider B = the class of events that have no other events similar to it If B is a class of one, and A is a class of millions, wouldn’t that imply a unique event is less likely? Or is this a fallacy? My more general question is whether or not coming across some event that you process as way differently from other events implies a lower probability. If this is a fallacy, what is it called?

Answer 1

The perceived uniqueness of an event does not inherently imply a lower probability of it occurring. Probability is determined by the underlying sample space and mechanisms, not by the event's uniqueness. Assuming a unique event has a lower probability without considering actual probabilities can be a misunderstanding of probability theory.

Step-by-step explanation:

The question at hand deals with the concept of probability and the likelihood of unique versus similar events occurring. In probability theory, the chances of an event occurring are not solely determined by its uniqueness or its similarity to other events. The fact that an event is unique (class B) does not necessarily imply a lower probability of occurrence in comparison to events that are similar to others (class A).

Probability is quantified between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty. The perceived uniqueness of an event does not directly determine its probability. Instead, it is the underlying mechanisms and the sample space of possible outcomes that dictate the likelihood of an event's occurrence. Events that seem unique may have a low probability because they do not frequently occur in our observed sample space, but it is not the uniqueness itself that makes them less likely.

Falling into the belief that a unique event is automatically less likely could be considered a form of fallacy. It seems to be an example of a misunderstanding of the foundational principles of probability rather than a specific fallacy like 'false cause'..

The fallacy would be to assume that an extraordinary or rare event is less likely just because it is unusual, without considering the actual mechanisms or probabilities involved.