Question

Suppose 500,000 lotteries were played before yesterday. Yesterday, Jane played the lottery and won. Today, she played the lottery and won again.

Person A, let's call him the conspiracy theorist, might say: This is incredible. How did she win two lotteries back to back? The probability of that seems too low. This must have been rigged.

Person B, let's call him the skeptic, says: There is no need for surprise. 500,000 lotteries have been played. Sooner or later someone had to win two lotteries, even if it was back to back.

Who is correct here? Many would say person B is correct but why?

Answer 1

Person B is correct in this situation. The probability of winning the lottery is low for any individual player, but when you consider the number of people playing the lottery, it becomes more likely that someone will win back-to-back lotteries.

Step-by-step explanation:

Person B is correct in this situation. The probability of winning the lottery is low for any individual player, but when you consider the number of people playing the lottery, it becomes more likely that someone will win back-to-back lotteries.

In a large number of lotteries played, it is expected that there will be some unusual outcomes, such as back-to-back wins. This does not necessarily indicate that the lottery is rigged, but rather demonstrates the vast range of possible outcomes in a game of chance.