Question

Let’s use fear as an example and negative events as events that may cause that fear.

Should fear, if you feel it, and the intensity of it correlate with how strongly likely an event is?

For example, if you were to drive a car at 110 miles per hour, you may have a higher likelihood of dying than flying a plane. Should you then fear dying more when driving at that speed vs. being a passenger on a plane?

What about events that have unknown likelihoods? For example, say you fear negative event A more than negative event B, but you are not able to convince yourself that the probability of negative event A is higher. Should you now atleast consciously recognize that this is irrational, even if you are not physically able to control that fear?

More broadly, when is it rational (if ever) to fear something and how should the intensity of that fear change depending upon perceived evidence?

Answer 1

Fear should theoretically correlate with actual risks, but due to psychological factors and imperfect information, fear often does not align rationally with statistical probabilities.

Step-by-step explanation:

You asked whether the intensity of fear should correlate with the likelihood of negative events. Theoretically, it seems rational that fear should correlate with actual risks; for instance, driving at high speeds has a clear association with increased accidents. Therefore, in theory, one might expect to fear this situation more than flying in a plane, which statistically has a lower risk of fatality.

However, when dealing with unknown likelihoods or psychological fears, as with public speaking or taking exams, the response can seem irrational. This is because humans have inherited an evolutionary mechanism that was designed for physical threats. Feelings of fear are not always adaptive in modern situations, leading to health consequences when we respond to non-physical threats with intense fear.

Moreover, because of the imperfection of information, we can't predict events with certainty, which adds complexity to our assessment of risks. For instance, insurance models demonstrate the difficulty in accurately predicting individual risk levels due to the variability in human behavior and sheer chance.

In conclusion, while it may be beneficial to consciously recognize irrational fears, it's not always possible to control them due to our psychological makeup and the imperfect information available to us.