Final answer:
Being 'more likely' means there is a greater chance for an event to occur, which can be inferred from historical data or statistical probability. The vagueness of 'probably' requires different thresholds of acceptance depending on the context, from gambling to legal judgments.
Step-by-step explanation:
When something is said to be 'more likely', it implies that there is a greater chance or probability of it occurring compared to other possibilities. This assessment of likelihood can be based on historical evidence or can be a prediction based on statistical analysis. For instance, politicians use polls to gauge their chances of winning an election, which is a form of predicting likelihood based on collected data.
However, the term 'probably' is somewhat vague, as it does not provide a precise probability. A statement is considered 'probable' if there's at least a 51 percent chance of it happening. In different contexts, the threshold for considering an inference strong varies; for example, gamblers may accept lower probabilities than a court of law would when determining guilt. Pascal's Wager serves as a classic philosophical example, analyzing the 'bet' on the existence of God, which contrasts tangible stakes and intangible beliefs. Probabilities are used across various fields, from predicting weather to assessing job market trends. The probability theory initially developed from studying games of chance, such as poker. Importantly, each event must be treated independently, as illustrated by the gambler's fallacy, which falsely assumes past events affect the likelihood of future independent events.