Final answer:
An event predicted using probability is not necessarily less or more likely to occur by chance; the prediction is simply an estimation based on available information. Political and weather predictions, for instance, deal with probabilistic outcomes rather than certain ones.
Step-by-step explanation:
The likelihood of an event occurring by chance can be estimated using the concept of probability. Political science, for example, often deals with estimates and probabilities rather than with certain outcomes. When we look at an event such as a coin flip, the outcome of one single flip is random and can not be predicted with certainty; each flip has a 50 percent chance of resulting in heads or tails.
Similarly, the likely re-election of an incumbent politician cannot be stated with certainty but can be predicted probabilistically, based on various factors such as their performance, public opinion, and other related data. These predictions are made on the basis of patterns observed in past events and the analysis of current conditions rather than certainty. Therefore, an event that is predicted based on these factors is not necessarily less or more likely to occur by chance—it is simply that we have estimated probabilities based on available information.