Question

a total of 40 percent of the voters in a city classify themselves as independents, whereas 35 percent classify themselves as liberals, and 25 percent as conservatives. in a recent election, 40 percent of the independents, 75 percent of the liberals, and 65 percent of the conservatives voted. given that a person voted in the election, what is the probability that the person is an independent

Answer 1

Probability = 0.088 ie 8.8%

Explanation:

P (I) = 40% = 0.4

P (L) = 35% = 0.35

P (C) = 25% = 0.25

P (EV / I) = 40% = 0.4

P (EV / L) = 75% = 0.75

P (EV / C) = 65% = 0.65

P (I / EV) = [ P (EV / I) . P (I) ] / [ P ( EV) ]

[ P (EV / I) . P (I) ] / [ P (EV / I) + P (EV / L) + P (C / L)

[(0.4) (0.4)] / [ 0.4 + 0.75 + 0.65 ]

0.16 / 1.8

= 0.088 ie 8.8%