Final answer:
The speed of the rock when it hits the coconut on the way down is the same as when it would have hit the coconut on the way up, making it equally likely to dislodge the coconut on either trajectory.
Step-by-step explanation:
In this scenario, neglecting air resistance, the speed of the rock when it hits the coconut on the way down would be the same as what it would have been if it had hit the coconut on the way up.
When a projectile is thrown straight up and neglecting air resistance, it reaches the same speed on its way down as it did on its way up.
Therefore, it is equally likely to dislodge the coconut on the way up or down.