Answer:
0.3085 = 30.85% probability that the mean years of experience from the sample of 4 is greater than 3.5 years.
Explanation:
To solve this question, we need to understand the normal probability distribution and the central limit theorem.
Normal probability distribution
When the distribution is normal, we use the z-score formula.
In a set with mean
and standard deviation
, the zscore of a measure X is given by:
![Z = (X - \mu)/(\sigma)](https://img.qammunity.org/2022/formulas/mathematics/college/bnaa16b36eg8ubb4w75g6u0qutzsb68wqa.png)
The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the measure is from the mean. After finding the Z-score, we look at the z-score table and find the p-value associated with this z-score. This p-value is the probability that the value of the measure is smaller than X, that is, the percentile of X. Subtracting 1 by the pvalue, we get the probability that the value of the measure is greater than X.
Central Limit Theorem
The Central Limit Theorem estabilishes that, for a normally distributed random variable X, with mean
and standard deviation
, the sampling distribution of the sample means with size n can be approximated to a normal distribution with mean
and standard deviation
.
For a proportion p in a sample of size n, the sampling distribution of the sample proportion will be approximately normal with mean
and standard deviation
![s = \sqrt{(p(1-p))/(n)}](https://img.qammunity.org/2022/formulas/mathematics/college/21siyq2l0d9z8pcii2ysmig6q1uk55fvwj.png)
Distribution of years of experience:
Mean 3, so
![\mu = 3](https://img.qammunity.org/2022/formulas/mathematics/college/2ygrrv4iyyx9a0m15tj809eci0ubhcrb99.png)
Standard deviation 2, so
![\sigma = 2](https://img.qammunity.org/2022/formulas/mathematics/college/8xmkifv8v9ozr5yrjc45b9v39hwsxe2rq3.png)
Sample of 4:
![n = 4, s = (2)/(√(4)) = 1](https://img.qammunity.org/2022/formulas/mathematics/college/h3g0nfkiwi46ogfnk810wg1n4bp32h4b8i.png)
What is the probability that the mean years of experience from the sample of 4 is greater than 3.5?
1 subtracted by the pvalue of Z when X = 3.5. So
![Z = (X - \mu)/(\sigma)](https://img.qammunity.org/2022/formulas/mathematics/college/bnaa16b36eg8ubb4w75g6u0qutzsb68wqa.png)
By the Central Limit Theorem
![Z = (X - \mu)/(s)](https://img.qammunity.org/2022/formulas/mathematics/college/8gbhe8yt27ahcwjlwowvv4z55idxi3791r.png)
![Z = (3.5 - 3)/(1)](https://img.qammunity.org/2022/formulas/mathematics/college/vc8u3kfe4py43hyln84ljrsmlsi8zk5fn3.png)
![Z = 0.5](https://img.qammunity.org/2022/formulas/mathematics/college/8ex13i4s86akooo48dule0j4lsadoa7ful.png)
has a pvalue of 0.6915
1 - 0.6915 = 0.3085
0.3085 = 30.85% probability that the mean years of experience from the sample of 4 is greater than 3.5 years.