Question

If the probability of drilling the next well as producer is 30%, two additional wells will be drilled. The probability of success of the second and third wells is 45% and 35%, respectively. If the first well is dry then no other wells will be drilled.

What is the probability all three wells will be successful?

Answer 1

The probability that all three wells will be successful is found by multiplying the individual probabilities together, resulting in a 4.725% chance that all wells are producers.

Step-by-step explanation:

The question asks for the probability that all three wells will be successful given their individual probabilities of success. To find this, we multiply the probabilities of each event occurring since they are independent events. First, we have a 30% chance for the first well, 45% for the second well, and 35% for the third well.

To calculate the combined probability, we use the formula:

P(All three wells successful) = P(First well) × P(Second well) × P(Third well)

P(All three wells successful) = 0.30 × 0.45 × 0.35

By doing the multiplication, we get:

P(All three wells successful) = 0.04725 or 4.725%

So, the probability that all three wells will be successful is 4.725%.