Question

Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13 16 11 17 14. Using the naïve method (most recent value) as______.

Answer 1

The naïve method forecasts that the value for Week 7 will be 14, based on the most recent observed value from Week 6.

Step-by-step explanation:

The student asks about using the naïve method for forecasting in a time series analysis. The naïve method predicts the future point in a time series as being equal to the last observed point. In this case, with weekly values provided for six weeks,:

• Week 1: 18
• Week 2: 13
• Week 3: 16
• Week 4: 11
• Week 5: 17
• Week 6: 14

Using the naïve method, the forecast for Week 7 would be the most recent value observed, which is the value from Week 6: 14.