Final answer:
The statement provided is false; background assumptions significantly influence our expectations about the future, according to provided references discussing rational and adaptive expectations, as well as the relevance of assumptions in modeling future outcomes.
Step-by-step explanation:
The statement "Background assumptions rarely contribute to our expectations" is false. In fact, background assumptions play a crucial role in shaping our expectations about the future. According to the provided references, rational expectations utilize all of past experience to predict future events accurately, while adaptive expectations are shaped by past experiences without projecting forward. Moreover, it is emphasized that we should approach the future with humility, recognizing that both optimistic and pessimistic outcomes are possible and setting aside preconceived notions. The ability of mathematical models to guide understanding despite not capturing every nuance illustrates that even simplified versions of our assumptions are significant in establishing boundaries for possible outcomes.
Throughout these discussions, it's clear that background assumptions, whether based on recent history or cumulative experience, significantly influence our expectations and our interpretation of both scientific and social phenomena.