Question

Parade magazine posed the following question: “Should drivers be banned from using all cell phones?” Readers were encouraged to vote online at parade.com. The subsequent issue of Parade reported the results: 2407 (85%) said “Yes” and 410 (15%) said “No.” Is 85% probably greater than or less than the true percent of all adults who believe that all cell phone use while driving should be banned and why?

A)The reported value of 85% is probably greater than the true percent because very few people read Parade magazine.

B)The reported value of 85% is probably the same as the true percent because with such a large sample size it should be an accurate poll.

C)The reported value of 85% is probably less than the true percent because cell phones are dangerous and should be banned.

D)The reported value of 85% is probably less than the true percent because people couldn’t vote because they were driving at the time and couldn’t log on.

E)The reported value of 85% is probably greater than the true percent because readers who have strong opinions regarding driving and cell phone use are more likely to respond to the poll and say “Yes.”

Answer 1

The reported 85% is likely greater than the actual percentage of all adults in favor of a cell phone ban while driving due to a biased sample of respondents with strong opinions and selection bias. Accurate estimations require a representative sample and proper polling methods.

Step-by-step explanation:

The reported value of 85% is probably greater than the true percent of all adults who believe that all cell phone use while driving should be banned. The main reason for this is that the sample is taken from a group of readers who chose to respond to an online poll on parade.com. Such voluntary response samples tend to include individuals with more strong opinions on the issue, who may not be representative of the general population. Additionally, the method of collecting responses, such as an online poll, might not reach all segments of the population, which can lead to a selection bias.

Using confidence intervals from hypothetical studies and trends reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) regarding cell phone use, we can infer that accurate estimations should account for demographic variations and sampling methods. Furthermore, the capacity to draw valid inferences from a poll is dependent on using a randomly selected sample that is representative of the entire population, which is not the case with voluntary response polls like the one conducted by Parade magazine.