Final answer:
The tendency to judge the probability of an event by its superficial similarity to a stereotype or known case is called the representativeness heuristic. This cognitive bias can lead to errors in judgment as people may overestimate the likelihood of an event based on how familiar or similar an instance is to their existing prototypes.
Step-by-step explanation:
The tendency to judge the probability of an event by its superficial similarity is called c) representativeness heuristic.
The representativeness heuristic is a mental shortcut that involves making probability judgments based on how much one thing resembles another. When people use this heuristic, they are evaluating the likelihood of an event by comparing it to an existing prototype in their minds. This leads to a confirmation bias-like effect, but specifically, the representativeness heuristic is about the reliance on the similarity to a stereotype or known case when making a decision or assessing probability.
For example, someone may meet a well-dressed individual with a refined accent and assume they are well-educated based on the stereotype that matches their appearance and mannerisms. This could lead to an overestimation of their actual education level simply because they fit the prototype of a well-educated person, despite having no concrete information about their educational background.
Another common situation where this heuristic is employed is in judging the likelihood of an event based on how similar it appears to cases that are easily retrievable from memory, instead of using actual statistical information. Confirmation bias, on the other hand, entails a focus on information that confirms one's preconceptions, often overlooking contrary evidence.