Final answer:
The belief in winning at gambling in Las Vegas due to a failure to appreciate base rates is true as it highlights the tendency to underestimate the odds set by casinos, which favor the house.
Step-by-step explanation:
The statement "Believing that you will win in Las Vegas is the result of failure to appreciate base rates" is generally TRUE. Base rates are fundamental probabilities that represent how likely a given event is to occur. In the context of Las Vegas gambling, the base rates would refer to the odds set by gambling establishments, which are usually in favor of the house. A failure to appreciate these base rates might lead someone to overestimate their chances of winning.
Understanding base rates is a concept from probability and statistics, which is essential for accurate decision making under uncertainty. The common misconceptions about winning in a gambling situation often stem from cognitive biases and misunderstanding of the law of large numbers, where people believe that past independent events can affect future outcomes, also known as the gambler's fallacy.
To make rational decisions about gambling, one should understand the base rate fallacy, a cognitive error where people tend to ignore the general base rates in favor of individual case information or personal anecdotes.