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Ou forgot to study for your MATH 147 test but have decided to take the test anyway. The test consists of 11 multiple choice questions and you decide to guess the answers. Each question has five total answers, only one of which is correct.

(a) Write an expression for the exact probability that you score a 5 on the test (no penalty for not simplifying).
(b) Use the normal approximation (with continuity correction) to approximate the probability from part (a).

User Balla
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Final answer:

The exact probability of scoring a 5 on the test by guessing is very low, approximately 0.000034. The approximate probability using the normal distribution is approximately 99.65%.

Step-by-step explanation:

The probability of guessing the correct answer to a multiple choice question with 5 total answers is 1/5 or 0.2. Since there are 11 questions on the test, the probability of guessing all 11 correctly is (1/5)^11 or approximately 0.000034. This is the exact probability of scoring a 5 on the test by guessing.

To approximate the probability using the normal distribution, we can use the formula for the mean and standard deviation of a binomial distribution.

The mean is given by np, where n is the number of trials (11) and p is the probability of success (0.2). The standard deviation is given by sqrt(npq), where q is the probability of failure (1-p).

Using these formulas, we find that the mean is 11 * 0.2 = 2.2 and the standard deviation is sqrt(11 * 0.2 * 0.8) ≈ 1.49. To find the probability of scoring a 5 or higher, we can use the normal distribution with continuity correction.

We calculate the z-score for 4.5 (halfway between 4 and 5) using the formula z = (x - mean) / standard deviation. With a z-score of 2.68, we can look up the corresponding probability in the standard normal distribution table, which is approximately 0.9965 or 99.65%.

User Hsym
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