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13 votes
a basket contains 16 apples, of which two are rotten. a sample of three apples is selected at random. what is the probability that the sample contains two rotten apples?

User Dennis R
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1 Answer

14 votes
14 votes

Answer:


(1)/(120)


Explanation:


To solve such a problem you need to simulate a situation in which this could happen in three picks and then make sure your equation takes into account that all three picks take place at the same time. One such situation could look like this:

1) At the start, the probability of picking one rotten apple with one pick is 2 out of 16 which 2/16.

2) After picking the first apple you have 15 apples left of which only 1 is rotten. So the chance to pick the second rotten apple is 1/15.

3) After you picked the second rotten apple you want the third one in the set to be good. As you are left with 14 apples of which all 14 are good, the probability of picking a good one is 14/14.

Now, because you are interested in ALL those 3 things happening at the same time, you need to multiply the probabilities. So this gives you the answer of:


(2)/(16) *(1)/(15) *(14)/(14) = (1)/(8) *(1)/(15) *1 = (1)/(120)

You can achieve the same result if your picks are in a slightly different order. The result won't change as long as the outcome is the same (set of 2 rotten apples and 1 good apple). So if you first pick a rotten apple (2/16), then you happen to pick a good apple (14 out of 15 left are good so 14/15) and then pick the second rotten apple last (1/14) you will see it's gives the same result because you also end up with 2 rotten and 1 good apples:


(2)/(16) * (14)/(15) * (1)/(14) = (1)/(8) * (1)/(15) = (1)/(120)

User Ckruczek
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