Final answer:
Option 2, which presents a poor-quality habitat for a larger number of owls with nearby smaller, poor-quality patches, has the highest probability of extinction due to factors like lower carrying capacity and increased isolation.
Step-by-step explanation:
The habitat characteristics that would lead to the highest probability of extinction due to stochastic events for the owl population are those that combine small population size with poor habitat quality and isolation. Considering the options provided, a poor-quality patch large enough for 40 owls that is reachable from a larger, good-quality patch and two smaller, poor-quality, nearby patches (option 2) would likely lead to the highest probability of extinction. This is because poor-quality habitats can support fewer individuals, making the owl population more vulnerable to stochastic events such as disease, food shortages, or environmental changes. This situation is exacerbated if these patches are also isolated, as the chances for recolonization are reduced and genetic diversity could decline, leading to inbreeding and further susceptibility to extinction.