Final answer:
The probability of a significant asteroid or comet impact within a 5-year period by 2050 is roughly 0.000001%. This probability is much lower in comparison to everyday risks like car accidents or natural causes of death. Nevertheless, the extreme consequences of such events if they were to occur drive discussions on disaster preparedness and mitigation.
Step-by-step explanation:
The probability of a major asteroid or comet impact causing a mass extinction event on Earth, such as the one that occurs approximately once every 5 million years, can be calculated for a given time frame. To determine the likelihood that such an event would happen within a 5-year period by 2050, we need to consider the annual probability of occurrence. Assuming that such events occur at random and are evenly distributed over time, the annual probability of an event is 1 in 5 million, or 0.0000002%. Then, this probability can be extended over a five-year period resulting in approximately 0.000001% chance of occurrence within that time frame.
Compared to other risks such as car accidents or natural causes of death, the impact of an asteroid or comet is significantly less likely. Furthermore, when evaluating the effect of non-anthropogenic causes on the death rate of over 10% of the human population within five years, the likelihood is exceedingly low, as these events are rare in the cosmic shooting gallery. However, considering the unpredictability and potential severity of these events, contingency plans like those depicted in films such as Deep Impact are discussed to prepare for and possibly mitigate the consequences of such a catastrophic event should it be predicted.